We are in the middle of a rapid shift in global dominance and alliances. Rising regional powers are gaining more autonomy and economic strength. Historians are suggesting we are moving into a multipolar international order, in which power is distributed between several major poles rather than being dominated by one or two superpowers. This has been dubbed the decline of the West and the rise of the rest.
The shuffling of alliances picked up momentum in the past year as Trump’s antagonism, tariff wars, and imperialistic threats to take over Greenland caused longtime U.S. allies to rethink their strategies. Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, was one of the first to directly state the United States could no longer be trusted.
In a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Carney struck a determined, defiant tone toward the US and a decades-old rules-based international order that, in his view, is now falling apart. “Canadians know that our old comfortable assumptions that our geography and alliance memberships automatically conferred prosperity and security — that assumption is no longer valid,” he said. In turn, he’s made the choice to take on “the world as it is, not wait around for a world we wish it to be.” In what may now be considered a prophetic statement Carney noted, “The pope himself, I think, would struggle to find the patience to deal with the US administration right now.”
This project would benefit from your support. If you can afford it, please chip in with a subscription; that’s how communities flourish. We’re 15 paid subscriptions away from our Earth Month goal of reaching bestseller status. It would be great if you’d jump aboard — just $30 for an entire year!
Next the U.S. invaded Venezuela, abducted its leader and threatened that Cuba could be next. Strategic alliances continued to shift. Then Trump attacked Iran and the old world order broke apart for good. Many Americans, and certainly most newscasters and political pundits, fret about America’s shrinking global dominance, but I think something profoundly positive could result. I know this statement is likely to get me labelled unpatriotic and anti-American and that’s OK. I’ve dealt with that, and worse, before. There is a possibility that the emerging new order could actually save America from some of our own folly.
If the goal is to keep the U.S. in a position of global dominance, Trump’s war on Iran will likely go down as one of the greatest strategic blunders in history. However, if the goal is moving humanity to a less oil-dependent operating system, the war might be just the ticket. A global economy with energy and food supply that depend upon oil tankers moving through a narrow strip of water is a house built on sand, in this case Persian sand.
The shockwaves from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are resulting in a cascade of events that may prove to be the greatest boost toward a lower carbon global energy system. Below are some of the developments I find most interesting.
The war in Iran has served as a painful reminder to many countries that as long as their economies run on fossil fuels they will face uncertainty, insecurity, and costs they cannot control.
Fuel shortages across much of Asia have led to conservation measures, such as four-day workweeks in the Philippines and Bangladesh. India has capped natural gas use for industry and Cambodia is cutting import taxes for green goods. A number of countries including Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Slovenia have implemented fuel rationing and driving restrictions.
The European Union, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the Philippines have responded to the war-driven spike in oil and gas prices by calling for an acceleration of electrification, renewables and clean energy infrastructure as the long-term solution to the volatility of global fossil fuel markets.
The major hesitation for more aggressive roll out of renewables is that China now holds the vast majority of renewable supply chain, manufacturing, and rare earths materials – a whopping 80% of the world’s solar panel production and 90% of the rare earths required in renewables technology. Reservation about becoming dependent on China has slowed importation of clean energy products in many countries, but that is shifting now and more countries, including U.S. allies, are working to strengthen their relationships with China.
European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said April 13 after hosting an emergency discussion on the war in Iran, that the long-term solution is to speed up the phase-out of fossil fuels. She noted, “Electrifying Europe means making Europe more independent.”
Leaders from Spain, the U.K., Canada, Finland, Ireland, India, UAE, have all recently travelled to China for meetings related to clean energy opportunities. During the Trump imposed oil-blockade on Cuba, that country has relied on Chinese solar panels.
The EU is also ramping up efforts to increase domestic production of clean energy to loosen China’s grip on batteries, solar panels and EVs. The Biden administration had done the same thing in the US, but as soon as Trump got back into office, he abolished those measures and other policies related to the clean economy. China’s clean technology exports are now overtaking sales of U.S. fossil fuels, a trend that’s showing no sign of slowing down. China is beating the US in energy export dominance, and they just announced a target of 3,600 gigawatts of wind and solar power by 2035 -- more than the entire electricity-generating capacity of the United States today, and roughly double what China has already built.
So here we are. The global economy and world food supplies are under threat from a chokehold on a 24-mile-wide strip of water. Negotiations to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz just failed. Oil spills in the region resulting from bombing petroleum facilities and tankers can now be seen from space. Humans and non-humans are being savaged by another war over oil. All of these transactions demonstrate that fossil fuel is the currency of conflict.
Meanwhile, next week, beginning April 28th, the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away From Fossil Fuels, will convene in Columbia. Following the unsuccessful UN climate talks, 85 countries signed on to a beyond fossil fuel commitment. They will be gathering to chart a map forward, unhindered by the UN consensus rules. I will be tracking and reporting on these proceedings.
Effectively slowing climate change and repairing Earth’s ecosystems will require more than just ramping up renewables and a slow phase out of fossil fuel and related wars, but there is a thread of hope that these unstable and uncomfortable times may finally break though humanity’s hard-headedness.
That is my hope and prayer today, on the eve of Earth Day 2026.
Sources:
Here’s a piece by Politico that gives a much more detailed account of the China-dependence aspect of the shifting alliances.
Special Guest Corbin Trent will be Live with Me Tomorrow (April 22)!
I am looking forward to a live conversation with Corbin Trent who is doing some great work navigating these crazy times. In 2015 Corbin sold his food trucks to volunteer for Bernie Sanders. That turned into co-founding Brand New Congress and Justice Democrats, then helping elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He worked as her strategist and communications director for a few years after that and has spent the better part of a decade pretty close to the center of the progressive movement.
I have found his thinking to be compelling and sharp. He is taking on powerful interests and doing the hard work of creating solutions to the political mess before us.
You can check out his Substack here. https://substack.com/@corbintrent. And I sure hope you’ll join us on the Substack app, live on Wednesday, April 22, 10am Pacific.
Life with Livvy and Micki Brown
Team Olive had a quite a weekend! We earned our International Agility Champion 2 title and our Champion Speedstakes Dog title.
Here is a video of our Speedstakes title win.
And here is our victory lap when we finally realized we had won out Internation Agility Champ 2 title.
Olive also won the Masters Series and earned a bye into the US Open.
Here’s Masters Agility run. We had a bobble coming out of the tunnel because I didn’t support her well enough, but still had a clean enough run to win the overall series. I was so pleased with the closing sequence because Olive has had issues with the teeter, but this course required an independent teeter. Olive had to handle the teeter with me on the other side of the dogwalk. She did great!
Masters Jumpers is the second leg. Again, a little bobble but enough for the win.
Nine-month-old Micki had nothing to do with it but decided to jump up and photobomb anyway.
These two are a lot – a lot of work, a lot of cleaning, a lot of love, a lot of fun. They are therapy for me and I am grateful.
Much love,
Cylvia
TRANSCEND is reader-supported by design. No ads, no corporate pressure. That’s a superpower. Please join this community as a paid supporter and help us meet the next milestone!
A Paid Subscription gets you:
Unlimited access to articles and newsletters, and guest contributors
Ad-free editions of our podcast
Community chats and commenting features. Your support helps keep our work sustainable and available to those who cannot afford a membership. Cancel anytime.
If you’d prefer not to subscribe but still want to help you can make a one-time contribution at The ReThink Ministry.
